Post by My only contribution. on Nov 13, 2013 18:37:48 GMT
Urban and Suburban prepper's philosophical positions can be distilled down to: "because this is what I want to do" not "because this is the best option for surviving the zombie apocalypse".
In the interest of proper discourse, I'm explain my reasoning below.
The likelihood of a permanent cataclysmic event?
Zero.
I think the likelihood of the end of the world as we know it is near absolute zero. We have approximately 330,000,000 people living in the United States. Using rough statistics, 50% of these people do not rely on the government to provide for their basic needs. This means 115,000,000 people are actively interested in providing for themselves and presumably improving their circumstances. The population in 1776 was 2,500,000. Those 2.5M people created an amazing country. Assuming 2.5M people can still recreate the semblance of a unified nation: What sort of event would kill off 327,500,000 people? Wouldn't we be discussing "the end of the world" not the "end of the world as we know it"?
The likelihood of some sort of non-extinction level natural event?
Absolute.
How many people were just killed in the Philippines? This is just one example of the magnitude of natural disasters that have been increasingly befalling mankind. I recently spent another day getting trained on Seismic Design because scientists believe the New Madrid Fault is ripe for an event in the "order of magnitude not yet seen on the Continent". Tornadoes? I was deputized when Newburgh was hit a number of years ago. I condemned more houses than I care to remember. I could go on, but I suspect this isn't an area we'll disagree upon.
The likelihood of some sort of non-extinction level man-made event?
Near Absolute.
Whatever your political belief system, "terrorism" is the boogeyman of the 21st century. Regardless of the source: government; middle-eastern; former soviet or current communist nation; or even a homegrown sociopath, there is always going to be the threat of something happening.
How does this effect the urban and/or suburban "prepper"?
Depends.
It might not effect them at all. A tsunami 5000 miles away really doesn't matter much to a guy living in a Chicago suburb. That same guy would be inconvinenced by an earthquake that disrupted food and power distribution for a few weeks. That same guy would have a hard time arguing that he'd have a good chance of surviving after a nuclear event.
Keep reading....
Bug Out - Where the heck are you going?
Online preppers like to talk about their Bug Out Bags. Where are these people going? What are they going to do when they get there?
Take our Chicago Suburbs prepper above. He bugs-in for six weeks while living in relative comfort and security. He's hardened his house, has ample food and water, and has had the whole family professionally trained in the use of their firearms. In week six, the looting parties are moving further out of the urban areas while simultaneously he's watching his "larder" getting depleted by his family and all of the neighbors that show up daily for a hand-out. The sanitation situation is getting dangerous as bags of human feces are piling up as people are finding burning trash sends up smoke which attracts the attention of looters. They've been listening to the wind-up radio they had stored in a faraday cage (ammo can) which survived the EMP. Day after day the only broadcasts are propagandized attempts at pacifying people's concerns. Its time they start considering their next move, because it appears "big brother" isn't coming soon enough. They start reviewing their bug-out-bags and discussing how they're going to get out of the suburbs alive. They've trained to use the storm sewer system at night.
Okay - lets stop there and analyze one critical issue. Where are they going and why weren't they there to begin with?
I just described what most would consider an "advanced prepper" in terms of planning, logistics and training. So what are his chances of surviving a protracted non-extinction level event? Better than your average Joe with a three days worth of food, and a couple boxes of 12 gauge ammo. His chances overall are still almost zero.
Where is he going to go even if he does survive the ex-filtration from his suburban AO? The internet is proof that far too many "cursory" preppers plan on hunting for their food in "an event". This means wildlife will be quickly depleted in the suburban periphery, and the woods will be awash with armed people. Anxious and starving suburban survivors aren't likely to have survived to this point by not shooting first. However, lets assume his storm sewer plan works 100% and he makes it out of the suburb.
Where is he going next?
How many people are properly trained to survive in the wilderness? How much consumables does his family's BOB's have versus the durables needed to survive a protracted bug-out? Is he going to Aunt Silvia's in Arkansas? What happens if he actually makes it to Aunt Silivia's just to find she's dead and the place has been taken over by: bikers; other refugees; the government; or is unsafe due to the near by train derailment (containing toxic waste)? Is he going to make the 1000 mile trek toward Colorado where "high country" woodland life might be safer? Does he know how to build a cabin to survive the winters there?
This doesn't even address all of the private property he'll have to cross on his way to The Land of Oz. People like me will shoot on sight anyone not specifically invited if they see someone sneaking across their homestead in a protracted event. More on this later.
Most importantly: what are they going to eat?
Food: history's equalizer
I don't care how rich, powerful, intelligent, strong, well equipped or trained you are because one factor equalizes the rest: FOOD. We all have to eat.
Lets look at the same scenario with our Chicago suburban prepper family, but lets give him a fighting chance....
Our highly motivated and financially secure Chicago Suburbs prepper family decides to "bug in" because the obvious peril involved in becoming a refugee. (PLEASE NOTE: we've just written off a huge number online survivalists because the extent of their plan is to "bug out"). He has a wife and two teenage children. After extensive research, review and analysis his family drafts a plan of action (we're going to assume they do not live in Cook County since firearms are forbidden there):
BUY SUPPLIES....
1) Buy one year's worth of food (2000 calories per person per day).
2) Buy two 55 gallon water barrels and a $300 Katadyn Pocket Filter (for resupply).
3) Buy two Ruger 10/22 22LR rifles and 5,000rds of ammo for the children.
4) Buy two Colt 6920 rifles and 2,000rds of ammo for the adults.
5) Buy two Glock 19 handguns and 1,000rds of ammo for the family.
6) Buy two sets of Level III body armor for the children.
7) Buy two sets of Level IV body armor for the adults.
8) Buy four handheld radios with security enabled communications.
9) Buy four advanced trauma kits complete with surgical equipment.
GET TRAINING....
1) The entire family undergoes Red Cross First Aid and Blood-borne Pathogen Training.
2) The entire family mountain bikes, hikes, camps, and plays softball together.
3) The entire family gets professional firearms training: introduction; intermediate; and then advanced.
4) The entire family gets involved in the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts programs.
PREPARE HOUSE....
1) Build an outdoor kitchen complete with a wood burning stove, propane powered stove, and solar cooker.
2) Build an outdoor latrine.
3) Build a clothes line in the back yard.
4) Add water collection barrels to the gutter downspouts.
5) Have a plumber install a backflow preventer on the sewer lateral.
6) Create a 20' x 30' (600sf) victory garden in the back yard.
7) Build a chicken coop and add the maximum number of chickens allowed by zoning codes (typically three).
8) Build a "safe room" inside the Master Closet.
9) Add security cameras and lights around the perimeter of the house.
10) Pre-cut 2x4 lumber framing and plywood panels to fit over window openings (for ease of installation later).
11) Install hardened deadbolts on the doors.
NOW WHAT....
I would call this family "advanced suburban preppers". They have stored foods, the ability to grow foods, the ability to prepare foods, stored water, the ability to collect and make potable water, a latrine, a hardened house with trained shooters.
What about when Mildred, that sweet 70 year old grandmother type next door shows up on Day-10? She's hungry but can help out around the kitchen. Your food supply was just cut by 20%. On Day-30 those internet prepper community friends from Indianapolis show up. I guess Judy shouldn't have exchanged Christmas cards (since this gave away Bob & Judy's address)! He's a military vet and she's a nurse so that's two good people to have on board, but their 16 year old son is a dead beat. Your food supply was just cut again. Bob's family now started with six months worth of food.
Its been raining enough to supply everyone 1 gallon of drinking and 1 gallon of sanitation water daily, but summer is coming. Its now July and the rain isn't resupplying the usage. The 110 gallons of stored water is now rationed to 64 ounces of drinking and 64 ounces of cooking per day per person. Eight people x 1 gallon / 110 gallon = 13.75 days of water.
Mildred slips in the kitchen and cuts her hand. Sanitation has grown worse because of the water shortage, but the nurse from Indianapolis uses all of your antibiotics and she pulls through the infection.
At Day-120 you're 1/2 way through your food in spite of your little garden and water is now a premium. Mildred didn't make it thorough the heat of summer and is buried in her yard. The gun fire can be heard getting closer at night as the looters are spreading out of the city and into the "land of milk and honey" in search of food, women to rape, and anything of value to steal.
At Day-140 the next block was burned to the ground by looters. Since houses are 10 feet apart and the Fire Department ceased to exist months ago there really isn't anything a person can do if one house catches fire.
You see where this is going? Add more people and food becomes even a bigger issue.
The alternative choice
Bob, our Chicago suburban prepper, studies and experiments with these options over a decade. He learns the following after countless hours online, reading books, training, testing gear, buying stuff (and then selling it at a financial loss), etc:
1) The internet is a place people go because they mostly desire to have their choices validated. It really isn't a place for advanced discourse about advanced topics. As an "open community" it allows all levels of knowledge to be included, and as a result the same entry level topics are rehashed at length preventing advanced topics from being discussed with merit since the knowledge pyramid is much wider at the base than at the apex.
2) Short of being a billionaire with enough financial resources to build a "continuity of government" level bunker in a suburban area, the data suggests the likelihood of surviving a protracted event in a suburban area is very low.
3) The few advanced sources of information suggest the only viable option is to "live at your retreat".
So Bob sets about looking for a place that can sustain his family. This isn't an easy task, because urban sprawl has increased agricultural land costs to a point of being inaccessible to the masses. Eventually Bob finds a humble house on ten acres of land one hour from his job. The basic house and land are a huge step down from his custom built 2,200sf suburban dream home, but he thinks he'll be about even in cost. He sells his 2,200sf dream house at a $10,000 loss and pays $200,000 for a basic 1,500sf ranch house on ten acres. Bob's wife, Judy, gives up her job, because the family can't spend a cumulative 4 hours a day driving to and from work and she'll need to be there to run their dream farm. The loss of her job brings the household income from a comfortable "just above six figures" to "well below six figures" but Judy thinks the cost will be somewhat offset when they start growing their own food. Bob and Judy have been paying a premium for organic food.
The family spends the next six months making the $200,000 ten year old house "liveable". After $50,000 in upgrades and countless hours of backbreaking work they move in. They hadn't considered that Judy wouldn't have free insurance through work, but its only another $2000 a year out of the shrunken budget.
The one hour drive back and forth was annoying during the remodel, but the excitement and novelty of "moving to the country" fueled the project along. After living in the house a couple of months, Bob's family lament the lost family time as Bob is gone 1.5 hours more a day. His drive to work was 15 minutes each way, but is now 1 hour each way. Bob writes this and the increased cost of gas and vehicle maintenance off as the "cost of having a safety buffer between us and them". As an engineer, Bob studied how other types of professionals use to work from home and he plans to eventually do so as well. The loss of Judy's income, increased costs of living (added insurance, gas, etc), and mounting costs of developing their farm have made this a very difficult to realize goal. However, if the family tightens its belt (no vacations, no new clothes, no cable or internet, no going out to eat, etc) it can probably be achieved in about ten years assuming Bob's income keeps up with inflation. Due to the current economic climate, Bob has only received one raise in the past five years.
After recovering from the fatique and sticker shock of remodeling the house, the family initiates its "homestead plan". You see, Bob and Judy realized that if you're already living like "the day after" the actual "day after" doesn't effect you. Judy often jokes, "who cares if the power goes out, we only use it for luxuries like hot bathes anyway. We can heat water on the woodstove when we're cooking if necessary".
The homestead plan is pretty simple: make or grow as much of what you need as possible, conserve as much as possible, and live very simply.
Judy is the farm manager. She already spent two years studying advanced horticulture in preparation for the move, but this was kicked into overdrive after the remodel and move. She now reads three to four books a week, and is constantly writing notes, experimenting with various things, planning how to squeeze every inch of space out of their farm into something useful, cooking with raw ingredients completely from scratch, establishing relationships with other local families.
An interesting side note: people who are massively inconvenienced by living in a rural area all seem to have some overlapping interests. Bob and Judy's 'neighbors' all have at least ten acres, most have some form of livestock and/or garden, all own and use firearms, many hunt, etc.
Bob is the strategic planner. His background in engineering is a perfect fit for the role of "planner". He knows how to build things and how to plan things. He is constantly studying and developing ideas on how to best build all of the contraptions they'll need. He's also the muscle around the farm. After his 12 hour days at the Chicago Engineering Firm, he comes home and works until dark. Then the family eats a wholesome meal together and starts studying again.
The family settles on a comprehensive planning strategy they call: Sustainable Living. To the family, "sustainable living" means: provide for your needs in a fashion that can be continued in perpetuity. Based upon this strategic idea, the family decides it needs to provide for their following needs:
Food, water, shelter (heating and cooking), sanitation, and defense. They set their plan in motion:
FOOD....
All materials used in construction cannot be treated since Bob and Judy are using organic practices. The cost differential for pressure treated lumber to decay resistant untreated cedar lumber is a 466% increase.
1) Garden. The family eats extremely healthy so this won't be a culinary problem. 100% of the family's produce will come from a garden sized to provide enough food (fresh and preserved). 100% of the work will be conducted by hand without the assistance of chemicals or gas powered equipment since these items might not be available later and are unhealthy. The one exception is a gas powered tiller. As the ground hasn't been tilled it'll need this initial working. The family will learn to save heirloom seeds so they don't have to rely on another source. This means the family will have the ability to provide food for itself forever. The family bought a $400 tiller, and put a starter garden out too late the first year. They learned from their mistakes.
2) Animals. Gardens need fertilizer. Grass grows on its own. Pasture animals eat grass and poop. The family decides to get chickens and goats. Both animals are good for meat, and produce much needed byproducts: eggs and milk (respectively). The animals will be allowed to free-range in a managed pasturing system. This system means the animals will spread their manure evenly over divided paddocks. The chickens will be allowed onto a paddock after the goats, because the chickens will pick the intestinal larva out of the goat poop preventing the goats from having problems later when they return to a particular paddock. The manure will be moved into the garden as needed. To protect the chickens the family spends $1,000 and seven twelve hour days building a 12 foot x 8 foot movable coop. This coop will give the chickens a safe place to roost at night, and can be moved by hand in the rotational grazing system.
3) Fruit. Bob and Judy selected fruit trees and brambles (berries) that were well suited to their climate. The spend a month measuring their available land, testing the soil acidity and finally settle on where to plant their trees and brambles. They rent an auger and install 30 eight foot 4x4 untreated cedar posts at a cost of $1,100. These are to serve as the end supports in their bramble vineyard. They then spend three thee-day weekends planting $1,500 worth of fruit trees and bramble plants. Unfortunately, the wild deer and rabbits kill every plant by overgrazing on their leaves and buds. Bob and Judy will have to buy another $1,500 worth of plants next spring (and dig out all of the dead plants).
4) Fence. Bob and Judy decide to fence off everything because they have to control the grazing livestock, and the local wildlife problem listed above. The fence ends up being 3,000LF long and costs $5,300 to build. It takes Bob and Judy four months of three day weekends (sun up to sun down) to build the fence, but in the end its only semi-effective. They find they still need to electrify the fence since the local deer are jumping over it. They spend another $1,200 and install three electrified wires around the perimeter. They choose solar powered equipment so they're not dependent upon the grid.
5) Cooking. Bob and Judy chose a house with a centrally located wood burning stove so they can heat the house and cook by wood in the winter. They also fully plan on building an outdoor kitchen because using the indoor wood stove in the summer is not an option. The outdoor kitchen will have a wood powered smoker, grill, and oven as well as a solar powered dehydrator and three solar cookers. The solar cookers will be built on spindles to allow them to be rotated into alignment with the sun as the sun arcs through the sky. The estimated cost of building the outdoor kitchen and solar devices is $2,250.
WATER....
The house has well water. Bob and Judy installed a whole house filtration system during their remodel. They plan on adding a solar powered well pump in year three. The cost of the pump is $1,200. They also plan on adding a hand pump at the well head. The local installer estimated $2,650 for a stainless handpump durable enough for daily usage.
Bob and Judy also bought rain collection barrels. They plan on installing the $75 barrels at each of downspout on their barn. The barn has a metal roof making the water more safe to use than off the house which has an asphalt roof. The house needs a new roof, and when Bob and Judy can afford to spend $9,800 they will replace the roof with a metal one allowing a rain water collection and distribution system to be installed. The house rain water will be collected at an underground cistern for use in garden and animal watering. The cistern, piping and handpump estimate is $5,600.
Bob and Judy also bought a couple of 7 gallon water barrels for stored water. They have a pair of pump water filters for filtration, but will build a tripartite outdoor filter after the roof is replaced on the house.
SHELTER....
As mentioned before, Bob and Judy's house has a centrally located woodstove. Since their property is 60% wooded, Bob and Judy are studying forestry techniques that will allow them to harvest timber in a fashion that will promote healthier new growth timber so their woodlot will thrive. They need a chainsaw, and after careful consideration selected a $600 professional model since it'll be used often. The budget hasn't' allowed for its purchase yet. They plan on using winter to fell trees and cut firewood for the next winter's usage. They need to build a woodshed, but the cost of the chicken coop cut into the woodshed budget. Due to the use of non-treated decay resistant cedar, the estimated budget is $1,500. Bob and Judy monitored their wood usage during their first winter, and while only supplementing the house's heat to above 50F, they were able to determine they need three cords of wood per winter to fully heat to 62F. This means the woodshed has to be sized for six cords of wood to allow for three cords to be seasoning while three are being used.
The house's indoor range and furnace are supplied by a 1000 gallon propane tank located behind the house. Bob and Judy monitored usage for their first year, and found they use approximately 700 gallons of propane for heating and cooking. Their Co-Op will only fill their tank to 80% for safety reasons so Bob and Judy can have one year's worth of propane on hand at any point.
SANITATION....
Bob and Judy's house has a non-grid tied septic system sized for four people. The system is 10 years old and will eventually need to be rebuilt. In the interim, they try to conserve water by taking short showers, turning off the water while brushing their teeth, only flushing the toilet after a #2 usage, etc.
Bob and Judy also chose to not install a garbage disposal when they installed a new sink in their kitchen. They feed their safe kitchen scraps to their chickens, and compost the rest. This composting, combined with the fact the family eats almost nothing pre-made/pre-mixed/processed reduces the family's trash to one small bag per week. Bob and Judy found a site on their land where the previous homeowner burned items. They plan on digging a pit in this location for trash burning.
Bob designed an outdoor shower based upon a 55 gallon drum elevated into the air with a water collection system on top. The drum will be painted black to collect heat from the sun to heat the water. Bob's design is simple, but very low on the priority list.
DEFENSE.....
Bob recognizing the propane tank is a potential hazzard, and has contacted his Co-Op about burying it. They don't recommend this practice so Bob and Judy will have to build a concrete block wall around the tank to serve as a "blast shield". Bob, as an engineer, designed to wall to resist the anticipated forces and calculated the material costs to be $3,200. As usual, Bob and Judy will provide the labor.
Bob and Judy are concerned about fire so they've located extinguishers throughout the house, and had the entire electrical system inspected by a professional. They are also replacing their asphalt roof with a metal roof when their budget allows. This will greatly increase the house's resistance to flame spread. They also plan on replacing wood and vinyl siding and cladding with fiber-cement fire-resistant rated products. These products are very expensive so this is a low priority.
Bob and Judy's house has a lot of windows, but they've pre-cut lumber and plywood to cover their windows. The materials are stored in a fashion that will allow them to be installed very quickly without power tools.
Bob and Judy's neighbors are all like minded, and through careful conversations everyone has become comfortable enough to admit they too moved to the country for "fresh air, living space, and safety". As such, everyone has learned each other's work hours and watches everyone else's homes. When one family is away on vacation, everyone is alerted and one family is assigned to check on their house daily. The system has worked well for Bob and Judy, and even developed into friendships. Bob found that one neighbor builds AR15 rifles which lead to Bob getting invited to join a local shooting range within minutes of his house. This in turn has led to other relationships. Judy has made many great friendships with women more experienced in gardening, animal husbandry, canning, home remedies, etc. As mentioned before, people who chose the inconvenience of rural life have overlapping interests.
TOTALLY OFF GRID LONG-TERM OBJECTIVE....
Solar power is Bob and Judy's unicorn. They hope to be able to afford to fully cut their one grid tied utility (electricity) in time, but the estimate for a total solar system was $29,100 after the available tax incentives and rebates.
LESSONS BOB & JUDY HAVE LEARNED....
Bob and Judy have learned through: sacrifice; pain; loss of income; increased inconvenience; and great expense the following lessons.
1) Living as if it were 1813 not 2013 is a hard life. There is literally ZERO time for recreation. Bob hasn't had a day off in five weeks. He gets up for work at 5am and gets home from the office at 6pm. He spends one hour eating dinner and relaxing with the family. 100% of the rest of his time is spent building, studying, etc. Judy works sun up to sun down running the household, taking care of animals, planning gardens, studying nutrition and organic practices, etc.
2) Living 35 minutes from the nearest WalMart is a monumental difficulty. When Bob or Judy need something simple it is at least a 1 hour and 10 minute round trip drive. This means you learn to do without and make do with what you have. It also means you plan everything to the highest degree possible.
3) Living the "organic life" is exceptionally difficult. Most organic foods are 2x the cost of the non-organic version. Bob and Judy also have to visit three grocery stores, two specialty stores and three department stores on their once-per-week shopping trips. This, hopefully, will be offset when their own food production prospers.
4) Living the "homestead life" is remarkably expensive. The increased cost of gas alone has been difficult for Bob and Judy to bear on their greatly reduced income. As the sole provider, Bob has increased stress levels and concerns about his engineering career. The costs of developing sustainable and ecologically friendly solutions to the "off the grid" organic farming questions are exceedingly high.
The Conclusions
People choose to be arm-chair suburban internet "preppers" because doing what it actually takes to live a truly rural off-grid and survivable lifestyle is an extraordinarily difficult undertaking. People are simply too lazy (or unmotivated) to do it.
Bob and Judy's family have sacrificed heavily to build an environment where they can thrive.
As a result, people like Bob and Judy feel extremely strongly about their sacrifices. While everyone else is watching sports and eating potato chips they bought at the store that is only 5 minutes from their house, Bob and Judy are blistering under the sun building a farm. While everyone else is away taking dream vacations, Bob and Judy are putting DVD movies on eBay in hopes of generating a little income to buy new heat lamps for their chickens (they don't have time to watch the movies anyway). While everyone else has the convenience surfing Facebook, Bob and Judy have to drive 20 minutes (each way) to a neighboring town during its library hours to find information they need to continue building their farm since they cannot afford and do not have internet access available to them.
The cumulative resultant is: If some cataclysm ever does occur, Bob and Judy have decided to turn away anyone who shows up wanting food or shelter in an emergency. Anyone who protests will be forcefully removed. Anyone who resists will be shot. This is consequence of the refugee's decisions, not the hardheartedness of Bob and Judy.
You see, life is about decisions and choices. Families like Bob and Judy's might seem judgmental, but its actually about accountability. Bob and Judy don't judge others for their choices, but will also not be accountable for them. This is the crux of Bob and Judy's entire sociopolitical world view: Do whatever you want as along as you're not intentionally hurting someone, but don't expect us to help if you harm yourself in the process. Choosing to be a "bug out" or "suburban" prepper might do just that.
In the interest of proper discourse, I'm explain my reasoning below.
The likelihood of a permanent cataclysmic event?
Zero.
I think the likelihood of the end of the world as we know it is near absolute zero. We have approximately 330,000,000 people living in the United States. Using rough statistics, 50% of these people do not rely on the government to provide for their basic needs. This means 115,000,000 people are actively interested in providing for themselves and presumably improving their circumstances. The population in 1776 was 2,500,000. Those 2.5M people created an amazing country. Assuming 2.5M people can still recreate the semblance of a unified nation: What sort of event would kill off 327,500,000 people? Wouldn't we be discussing "the end of the world" not the "end of the world as we know it"?
The likelihood of some sort of non-extinction level natural event?
Absolute.
How many people were just killed in the Philippines? This is just one example of the magnitude of natural disasters that have been increasingly befalling mankind. I recently spent another day getting trained on Seismic Design because scientists believe the New Madrid Fault is ripe for an event in the "order of magnitude not yet seen on the Continent". Tornadoes? I was deputized when Newburgh was hit a number of years ago. I condemned more houses than I care to remember. I could go on, but I suspect this isn't an area we'll disagree upon.
The likelihood of some sort of non-extinction level man-made event?
Near Absolute.
Whatever your political belief system, "terrorism" is the boogeyman of the 21st century. Regardless of the source: government; middle-eastern; former soviet or current communist nation; or even a homegrown sociopath, there is always going to be the threat of something happening.
How does this effect the urban and/or suburban "prepper"?
Depends.
It might not effect them at all. A tsunami 5000 miles away really doesn't matter much to a guy living in a Chicago suburb. That same guy would be inconvinenced by an earthquake that disrupted food and power distribution for a few weeks. That same guy would have a hard time arguing that he'd have a good chance of surviving after a nuclear event.
Keep reading....
Bug Out - Where the heck are you going?
Online preppers like to talk about their Bug Out Bags. Where are these people going? What are they going to do when they get there?
Take our Chicago Suburbs prepper above. He bugs-in for six weeks while living in relative comfort and security. He's hardened his house, has ample food and water, and has had the whole family professionally trained in the use of their firearms. In week six, the looting parties are moving further out of the urban areas while simultaneously he's watching his "larder" getting depleted by his family and all of the neighbors that show up daily for a hand-out. The sanitation situation is getting dangerous as bags of human feces are piling up as people are finding burning trash sends up smoke which attracts the attention of looters. They've been listening to the wind-up radio they had stored in a faraday cage (ammo can) which survived the EMP. Day after day the only broadcasts are propagandized attempts at pacifying people's concerns. Its time they start considering their next move, because it appears "big brother" isn't coming soon enough. They start reviewing their bug-out-bags and discussing how they're going to get out of the suburbs alive. They've trained to use the storm sewer system at night.
Okay - lets stop there and analyze one critical issue. Where are they going and why weren't they there to begin with?
I just described what most would consider an "advanced prepper" in terms of planning, logistics and training. So what are his chances of surviving a protracted non-extinction level event? Better than your average Joe with a three days worth of food, and a couple boxes of 12 gauge ammo. His chances overall are still almost zero.
Where is he going to go even if he does survive the ex-filtration from his suburban AO? The internet is proof that far too many "cursory" preppers plan on hunting for their food in "an event". This means wildlife will be quickly depleted in the suburban periphery, and the woods will be awash with armed people. Anxious and starving suburban survivors aren't likely to have survived to this point by not shooting first. However, lets assume his storm sewer plan works 100% and he makes it out of the suburb.
Where is he going next?
How many people are properly trained to survive in the wilderness? How much consumables does his family's BOB's have versus the durables needed to survive a protracted bug-out? Is he going to Aunt Silvia's in Arkansas? What happens if he actually makes it to Aunt Silivia's just to find she's dead and the place has been taken over by: bikers; other refugees; the government; or is unsafe due to the near by train derailment (containing toxic waste)? Is he going to make the 1000 mile trek toward Colorado where "high country" woodland life might be safer? Does he know how to build a cabin to survive the winters there?
This doesn't even address all of the private property he'll have to cross on his way to The Land of Oz. People like me will shoot on sight anyone not specifically invited if they see someone sneaking across their homestead in a protracted event. More on this later.
Most importantly: what are they going to eat?
Food: history's equalizer
I don't care how rich, powerful, intelligent, strong, well equipped or trained you are because one factor equalizes the rest: FOOD. We all have to eat.
Lets look at the same scenario with our Chicago suburban prepper family, but lets give him a fighting chance....
Our highly motivated and financially secure Chicago Suburbs prepper family decides to "bug in" because the obvious peril involved in becoming a refugee. (PLEASE NOTE: we've just written off a huge number online survivalists because the extent of their plan is to "bug out"). He has a wife and two teenage children. After extensive research, review and analysis his family drafts a plan of action (we're going to assume they do not live in Cook County since firearms are forbidden there):
BUY SUPPLIES....
1) Buy one year's worth of food (2000 calories per person per day).
2) Buy two 55 gallon water barrels and a $300 Katadyn Pocket Filter (for resupply).
3) Buy two Ruger 10/22 22LR rifles and 5,000rds of ammo for the children.
4) Buy two Colt 6920 rifles and 2,000rds of ammo for the adults.
5) Buy two Glock 19 handguns and 1,000rds of ammo for the family.
6) Buy two sets of Level III body armor for the children.
7) Buy two sets of Level IV body armor for the adults.
8) Buy four handheld radios with security enabled communications.
9) Buy four advanced trauma kits complete with surgical equipment.
GET TRAINING....
1) The entire family undergoes Red Cross First Aid and Blood-borne Pathogen Training.
2) The entire family mountain bikes, hikes, camps, and plays softball together.
3) The entire family gets professional firearms training: introduction; intermediate; and then advanced.
4) The entire family gets involved in the Boy Scouts and Girl Scouts programs.
PREPARE HOUSE....
1) Build an outdoor kitchen complete with a wood burning stove, propane powered stove, and solar cooker.
2) Build an outdoor latrine.
3) Build a clothes line in the back yard.
4) Add water collection barrels to the gutter downspouts.
5) Have a plumber install a backflow preventer on the sewer lateral.
6) Create a 20' x 30' (600sf) victory garden in the back yard.
7) Build a chicken coop and add the maximum number of chickens allowed by zoning codes (typically three).
8) Build a "safe room" inside the Master Closet.
9) Add security cameras and lights around the perimeter of the house.
10) Pre-cut 2x4 lumber framing and plywood panels to fit over window openings (for ease of installation later).
11) Install hardened deadbolts on the doors.
NOW WHAT....
I would call this family "advanced suburban preppers". They have stored foods, the ability to grow foods, the ability to prepare foods, stored water, the ability to collect and make potable water, a latrine, a hardened house with trained shooters.
What about when Mildred, that sweet 70 year old grandmother type next door shows up on Day-10? She's hungry but can help out around the kitchen. Your food supply was just cut by 20%. On Day-30 those internet prepper community friends from Indianapolis show up. I guess Judy shouldn't have exchanged Christmas cards (since this gave away Bob & Judy's address)! He's a military vet and she's a nurse so that's two good people to have on board, but their 16 year old son is a dead beat. Your food supply was just cut again. Bob's family now started with six months worth of food.
Its been raining enough to supply everyone 1 gallon of drinking and 1 gallon of sanitation water daily, but summer is coming. Its now July and the rain isn't resupplying the usage. The 110 gallons of stored water is now rationed to 64 ounces of drinking and 64 ounces of cooking per day per person. Eight people x 1 gallon / 110 gallon = 13.75 days of water.
Mildred slips in the kitchen and cuts her hand. Sanitation has grown worse because of the water shortage, but the nurse from Indianapolis uses all of your antibiotics and she pulls through the infection.
At Day-120 you're 1/2 way through your food in spite of your little garden and water is now a premium. Mildred didn't make it thorough the heat of summer and is buried in her yard. The gun fire can be heard getting closer at night as the looters are spreading out of the city and into the "land of milk and honey" in search of food, women to rape, and anything of value to steal.
At Day-140 the next block was burned to the ground by looters. Since houses are 10 feet apart and the Fire Department ceased to exist months ago there really isn't anything a person can do if one house catches fire.
You see where this is going? Add more people and food becomes even a bigger issue.
The alternative choice
Bob, our Chicago suburban prepper, studies and experiments with these options over a decade. He learns the following after countless hours online, reading books, training, testing gear, buying stuff (and then selling it at a financial loss), etc:
1) The internet is a place people go because they mostly desire to have their choices validated. It really isn't a place for advanced discourse about advanced topics. As an "open community" it allows all levels of knowledge to be included, and as a result the same entry level topics are rehashed at length preventing advanced topics from being discussed with merit since the knowledge pyramid is much wider at the base than at the apex.
2) Short of being a billionaire with enough financial resources to build a "continuity of government" level bunker in a suburban area, the data suggests the likelihood of surviving a protracted event in a suburban area is very low.
3) The few advanced sources of information suggest the only viable option is to "live at your retreat".
So Bob sets about looking for a place that can sustain his family. This isn't an easy task, because urban sprawl has increased agricultural land costs to a point of being inaccessible to the masses. Eventually Bob finds a humble house on ten acres of land one hour from his job. The basic house and land are a huge step down from his custom built 2,200sf suburban dream home, but he thinks he'll be about even in cost. He sells his 2,200sf dream house at a $10,000 loss and pays $200,000 for a basic 1,500sf ranch house on ten acres. Bob's wife, Judy, gives up her job, because the family can't spend a cumulative 4 hours a day driving to and from work and she'll need to be there to run their dream farm. The loss of her job brings the household income from a comfortable "just above six figures" to "well below six figures" but Judy thinks the cost will be somewhat offset when they start growing their own food. Bob and Judy have been paying a premium for organic food.
The family spends the next six months making the $200,000 ten year old house "liveable". After $50,000 in upgrades and countless hours of backbreaking work they move in. They hadn't considered that Judy wouldn't have free insurance through work, but its only another $2000 a year out of the shrunken budget.
The one hour drive back and forth was annoying during the remodel, but the excitement and novelty of "moving to the country" fueled the project along. After living in the house a couple of months, Bob's family lament the lost family time as Bob is gone 1.5 hours more a day. His drive to work was 15 minutes each way, but is now 1 hour each way. Bob writes this and the increased cost of gas and vehicle maintenance off as the "cost of having a safety buffer between us and them". As an engineer, Bob studied how other types of professionals use to work from home and he plans to eventually do so as well. The loss of Judy's income, increased costs of living (added insurance, gas, etc), and mounting costs of developing their farm have made this a very difficult to realize goal. However, if the family tightens its belt (no vacations, no new clothes, no cable or internet, no going out to eat, etc) it can probably be achieved in about ten years assuming Bob's income keeps up with inflation. Due to the current economic climate, Bob has only received one raise in the past five years.
After recovering from the fatique and sticker shock of remodeling the house, the family initiates its "homestead plan". You see, Bob and Judy realized that if you're already living like "the day after" the actual "day after" doesn't effect you. Judy often jokes, "who cares if the power goes out, we only use it for luxuries like hot bathes anyway. We can heat water on the woodstove when we're cooking if necessary".
The homestead plan is pretty simple: make or grow as much of what you need as possible, conserve as much as possible, and live very simply.
Judy is the farm manager. She already spent two years studying advanced horticulture in preparation for the move, but this was kicked into overdrive after the remodel and move. She now reads three to four books a week, and is constantly writing notes, experimenting with various things, planning how to squeeze every inch of space out of their farm into something useful, cooking with raw ingredients completely from scratch, establishing relationships with other local families.
An interesting side note: people who are massively inconvenienced by living in a rural area all seem to have some overlapping interests. Bob and Judy's 'neighbors' all have at least ten acres, most have some form of livestock and/or garden, all own and use firearms, many hunt, etc.
Bob is the strategic planner. His background in engineering is a perfect fit for the role of "planner". He knows how to build things and how to plan things. He is constantly studying and developing ideas on how to best build all of the contraptions they'll need. He's also the muscle around the farm. After his 12 hour days at the Chicago Engineering Firm, he comes home and works until dark. Then the family eats a wholesome meal together and starts studying again.
The family settles on a comprehensive planning strategy they call: Sustainable Living. To the family, "sustainable living" means: provide for your needs in a fashion that can be continued in perpetuity. Based upon this strategic idea, the family decides it needs to provide for their following needs:
Food, water, shelter (heating and cooking), sanitation, and defense. They set their plan in motion:
FOOD....
All materials used in construction cannot be treated since Bob and Judy are using organic practices. The cost differential for pressure treated lumber to decay resistant untreated cedar lumber is a 466% increase.
1) Garden. The family eats extremely healthy so this won't be a culinary problem. 100% of the family's produce will come from a garden sized to provide enough food (fresh and preserved). 100% of the work will be conducted by hand without the assistance of chemicals or gas powered equipment since these items might not be available later and are unhealthy. The one exception is a gas powered tiller. As the ground hasn't been tilled it'll need this initial working. The family will learn to save heirloom seeds so they don't have to rely on another source. This means the family will have the ability to provide food for itself forever. The family bought a $400 tiller, and put a starter garden out too late the first year. They learned from their mistakes.
2) Animals. Gardens need fertilizer. Grass grows on its own. Pasture animals eat grass and poop. The family decides to get chickens and goats. Both animals are good for meat, and produce much needed byproducts: eggs and milk (respectively). The animals will be allowed to free-range in a managed pasturing system. This system means the animals will spread their manure evenly over divided paddocks. The chickens will be allowed onto a paddock after the goats, because the chickens will pick the intestinal larva out of the goat poop preventing the goats from having problems later when they return to a particular paddock. The manure will be moved into the garden as needed. To protect the chickens the family spends $1,000 and seven twelve hour days building a 12 foot x 8 foot movable coop. This coop will give the chickens a safe place to roost at night, and can be moved by hand in the rotational grazing system.
3) Fruit. Bob and Judy selected fruit trees and brambles (berries) that were well suited to their climate. The spend a month measuring their available land, testing the soil acidity and finally settle on where to plant their trees and brambles. They rent an auger and install 30 eight foot 4x4 untreated cedar posts at a cost of $1,100. These are to serve as the end supports in their bramble vineyard. They then spend three thee-day weekends planting $1,500 worth of fruit trees and bramble plants. Unfortunately, the wild deer and rabbits kill every plant by overgrazing on their leaves and buds. Bob and Judy will have to buy another $1,500 worth of plants next spring (and dig out all of the dead plants).
4) Fence. Bob and Judy decide to fence off everything because they have to control the grazing livestock, and the local wildlife problem listed above. The fence ends up being 3,000LF long and costs $5,300 to build. It takes Bob and Judy four months of three day weekends (sun up to sun down) to build the fence, but in the end its only semi-effective. They find they still need to electrify the fence since the local deer are jumping over it. They spend another $1,200 and install three electrified wires around the perimeter. They choose solar powered equipment so they're not dependent upon the grid.
5) Cooking. Bob and Judy chose a house with a centrally located wood burning stove so they can heat the house and cook by wood in the winter. They also fully plan on building an outdoor kitchen because using the indoor wood stove in the summer is not an option. The outdoor kitchen will have a wood powered smoker, grill, and oven as well as a solar powered dehydrator and three solar cookers. The solar cookers will be built on spindles to allow them to be rotated into alignment with the sun as the sun arcs through the sky. The estimated cost of building the outdoor kitchen and solar devices is $2,250.
WATER....
The house has well water. Bob and Judy installed a whole house filtration system during their remodel. They plan on adding a solar powered well pump in year three. The cost of the pump is $1,200. They also plan on adding a hand pump at the well head. The local installer estimated $2,650 for a stainless handpump durable enough for daily usage.
Bob and Judy also bought rain collection barrels. They plan on installing the $75 barrels at each of downspout on their barn. The barn has a metal roof making the water more safe to use than off the house which has an asphalt roof. The house needs a new roof, and when Bob and Judy can afford to spend $9,800 they will replace the roof with a metal one allowing a rain water collection and distribution system to be installed. The house rain water will be collected at an underground cistern for use in garden and animal watering. The cistern, piping and handpump estimate is $5,600.
Bob and Judy also bought a couple of 7 gallon water barrels for stored water. They have a pair of pump water filters for filtration, but will build a tripartite outdoor filter after the roof is replaced on the house.
SHELTER....
As mentioned before, Bob and Judy's house has a centrally located woodstove. Since their property is 60% wooded, Bob and Judy are studying forestry techniques that will allow them to harvest timber in a fashion that will promote healthier new growth timber so their woodlot will thrive. They need a chainsaw, and after careful consideration selected a $600 professional model since it'll be used often. The budget hasn't' allowed for its purchase yet. They plan on using winter to fell trees and cut firewood for the next winter's usage. They need to build a woodshed, but the cost of the chicken coop cut into the woodshed budget. Due to the use of non-treated decay resistant cedar, the estimated budget is $1,500. Bob and Judy monitored their wood usage during their first winter, and while only supplementing the house's heat to above 50F, they were able to determine they need three cords of wood per winter to fully heat to 62F. This means the woodshed has to be sized for six cords of wood to allow for three cords to be seasoning while three are being used.
The house's indoor range and furnace are supplied by a 1000 gallon propane tank located behind the house. Bob and Judy monitored usage for their first year, and found they use approximately 700 gallons of propane for heating and cooking. Their Co-Op will only fill their tank to 80% for safety reasons so Bob and Judy can have one year's worth of propane on hand at any point.
SANITATION....
Bob and Judy's house has a non-grid tied septic system sized for four people. The system is 10 years old and will eventually need to be rebuilt. In the interim, they try to conserve water by taking short showers, turning off the water while brushing their teeth, only flushing the toilet after a #2 usage, etc.
Bob and Judy also chose to not install a garbage disposal when they installed a new sink in their kitchen. They feed their safe kitchen scraps to their chickens, and compost the rest. This composting, combined with the fact the family eats almost nothing pre-made/pre-mixed/processed reduces the family's trash to one small bag per week. Bob and Judy found a site on their land where the previous homeowner burned items. They plan on digging a pit in this location for trash burning.
Bob designed an outdoor shower based upon a 55 gallon drum elevated into the air with a water collection system on top. The drum will be painted black to collect heat from the sun to heat the water. Bob's design is simple, but very low on the priority list.
DEFENSE.....
Bob recognizing the propane tank is a potential hazzard, and has contacted his Co-Op about burying it. They don't recommend this practice so Bob and Judy will have to build a concrete block wall around the tank to serve as a "blast shield". Bob, as an engineer, designed to wall to resist the anticipated forces and calculated the material costs to be $3,200. As usual, Bob and Judy will provide the labor.
Bob and Judy are concerned about fire so they've located extinguishers throughout the house, and had the entire electrical system inspected by a professional. They are also replacing their asphalt roof with a metal roof when their budget allows. This will greatly increase the house's resistance to flame spread. They also plan on replacing wood and vinyl siding and cladding with fiber-cement fire-resistant rated products. These products are very expensive so this is a low priority.
Bob and Judy's house has a lot of windows, but they've pre-cut lumber and plywood to cover their windows. The materials are stored in a fashion that will allow them to be installed very quickly without power tools.
Bob and Judy's neighbors are all like minded, and through careful conversations everyone has become comfortable enough to admit they too moved to the country for "fresh air, living space, and safety". As such, everyone has learned each other's work hours and watches everyone else's homes. When one family is away on vacation, everyone is alerted and one family is assigned to check on their house daily. The system has worked well for Bob and Judy, and even developed into friendships. Bob found that one neighbor builds AR15 rifles which lead to Bob getting invited to join a local shooting range within minutes of his house. This in turn has led to other relationships. Judy has made many great friendships with women more experienced in gardening, animal husbandry, canning, home remedies, etc. As mentioned before, people who chose the inconvenience of rural life have overlapping interests.
TOTALLY OFF GRID LONG-TERM OBJECTIVE....
Solar power is Bob and Judy's unicorn. They hope to be able to afford to fully cut their one grid tied utility (electricity) in time, but the estimate for a total solar system was $29,100 after the available tax incentives and rebates.
LESSONS BOB & JUDY HAVE LEARNED....
Bob and Judy have learned through: sacrifice; pain; loss of income; increased inconvenience; and great expense the following lessons.
1) Living as if it were 1813 not 2013 is a hard life. There is literally ZERO time for recreation. Bob hasn't had a day off in five weeks. He gets up for work at 5am and gets home from the office at 6pm. He spends one hour eating dinner and relaxing with the family. 100% of the rest of his time is spent building, studying, etc. Judy works sun up to sun down running the household, taking care of animals, planning gardens, studying nutrition and organic practices, etc.
2) Living 35 minutes from the nearest WalMart is a monumental difficulty. When Bob or Judy need something simple it is at least a 1 hour and 10 minute round trip drive. This means you learn to do without and make do with what you have. It also means you plan everything to the highest degree possible.
3) Living the "organic life" is exceptionally difficult. Most organic foods are 2x the cost of the non-organic version. Bob and Judy also have to visit three grocery stores, two specialty stores and three department stores on their once-per-week shopping trips. This, hopefully, will be offset when their own food production prospers.
4) Living the "homestead life" is remarkably expensive. The increased cost of gas alone has been difficult for Bob and Judy to bear on their greatly reduced income. As the sole provider, Bob has increased stress levels and concerns about his engineering career. The costs of developing sustainable and ecologically friendly solutions to the "off the grid" organic farming questions are exceedingly high.
The Conclusions
People choose to be arm-chair suburban internet "preppers" because doing what it actually takes to live a truly rural off-grid and survivable lifestyle is an extraordinarily difficult undertaking. People are simply too lazy (or unmotivated) to do it.
Bob and Judy's family have sacrificed heavily to build an environment where they can thrive.
As a result, people like Bob and Judy feel extremely strongly about their sacrifices. While everyone else is watching sports and eating potato chips they bought at the store that is only 5 minutes from their house, Bob and Judy are blistering under the sun building a farm. While everyone else is away taking dream vacations, Bob and Judy are putting DVD movies on eBay in hopes of generating a little income to buy new heat lamps for their chickens (they don't have time to watch the movies anyway). While everyone else has the convenience surfing Facebook, Bob and Judy have to drive 20 minutes (each way) to a neighboring town during its library hours to find information they need to continue building their farm since they cannot afford and do not have internet access available to them.
The cumulative resultant is: If some cataclysm ever does occur, Bob and Judy have decided to turn away anyone who shows up wanting food or shelter in an emergency. Anyone who protests will be forcefully removed. Anyone who resists will be shot. This is consequence of the refugee's decisions, not the hardheartedness of Bob and Judy.
You see, life is about decisions and choices. Families like Bob and Judy's might seem judgmental, but its actually about accountability. Bob and Judy don't judge others for their choices, but will also not be accountable for them. This is the crux of Bob and Judy's entire sociopolitical world view: Do whatever you want as along as you're not intentionally hurting someone, but don't expect us to help if you harm yourself in the process. Choosing to be a "bug out" or "suburban" prepper might do just that.
